Post by 4th and Maine on Apr 6, 2009 9:58:51 GMT -5
The Toronto Blue Jays have long thought they would be that third power team in the American League East and they have made many moves in the past with an eye at taking down the New York Yankees and Boston RedSox. However, all those moves seem to have been for not as they were on the outside looking in as the Tampa Bay Rays were that team to overtake both the Evil Empire and RedSox Nation. But, seeing that does provide motivation, and the Jays will go into 2009 with the thought that maybe this is their year to get over the hump.
In order to do so, like most teams, the Jays will have to get excellent pitching from both the starting staff and probably even more importantly, the bullpen. The Jays still have staff ace, Roy Halladay, who has won 16 or more games five times in his career. After you get past him though, it is slim pickings. The Jays of course lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees this past offseason. How much will that hurt? Not too much, I am only projecting about a 6-4, maybe a 8-5 type of year from A.J. Burnett, nothing too strong. He has always been plagued by injuries, and will not be missed as much by Toronto as some of the "experts" think. But, will the guys that fill out the rotation be any more effective then that? It's a tough call. Let's take a look at their projected starting staff:
Roy Halladay RHP
David Purcey LHP
Jesse Litsch RHP
Ricky Romero LHP
Scott Richmond RHP
Now the rotation is going to be very young, but has tremendous upside. Jesse Litsch has had some extended time in the big leagues, going 13-9 with a 3.58 ERA. He should be a solid second or third starter, but the other three will be questionable. They have a little over a dozen MLB decisions combined, and will surely go through taking a few lumps in a division that is so deep. They may resemble a Rays like staff, but I am not sure these guys have the same kind of stuff and will probably not be as consistent. I look for them to struggle when Holladay or Litsch is not on the mound.
As far as the bullpen? It is again anchored by closer, B.J. Ryan. There are a few question marks there if he can come back as healthy as in years past after struggling with injuries last year. The rest of the bullpen as quality arms, but nothing too flashy. They include Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson, Brandon League, and others. I think they will be able to throw some quality innings, but I am not so sure they can hold any potential close leads against Boston, Tampa, and New York.
So in order for the Jays to be successful, they are going to have to mash a ton of runs. Toronto usually is capable of scoring a bunch of runs and this year shouldn't be much different. Their 2009 projected starting lineup looks a little something like this:
Marco Scutaro ss
Aaron Hill 2b
Alex Rios rf
Vernon Wells cf
Lyle Overbay 1b
Scott Rolen 3b
Rod Barajas c
Adam Lind dh
Travis Snyder lf
The top isn't a strong or as fast as some of the others in the division, but the power spots of Rios, Wells, and Overbay should match up nicely with anyone. They will be able to not only hit the ball over the fence but they should knock in a ton of runs.
There is no question the Jays will put up runs, and they should get out to some early leads. But with marginal starting pitching and an average bullpen that could become quite weak if Ryan isn't healthy, it could be a long year north of the boarder. Do I not only see Toronto failing to compete with Tampa and New York for the second or third spot, I believe they will be having to fight off Baltimore for fourth/last in the AL East. In fact, they may be so far out of it by July they will look to trade any potential attractive pieces such as Rios, Wells, or Ryan. The bigger question: How long will Halladay have to suffer in Toronto?
Prediction: 69-93
In order to do so, like most teams, the Jays will have to get excellent pitching from both the starting staff and probably even more importantly, the bullpen. The Jays still have staff ace, Roy Halladay, who has won 16 or more games five times in his career. After you get past him though, it is slim pickings. The Jays of course lost A.J. Burnett to the Yankees this past offseason. How much will that hurt? Not too much, I am only projecting about a 6-4, maybe a 8-5 type of year from A.J. Burnett, nothing too strong. He has always been plagued by injuries, and will not be missed as much by Toronto as some of the "experts" think. But, will the guys that fill out the rotation be any more effective then that? It's a tough call. Let's take a look at their projected starting staff:
Roy Halladay RHP
David Purcey LHP
Jesse Litsch RHP
Ricky Romero LHP
Scott Richmond RHP
Now the rotation is going to be very young, but has tremendous upside. Jesse Litsch has had some extended time in the big leagues, going 13-9 with a 3.58 ERA. He should be a solid second or third starter, but the other three will be questionable. They have a little over a dozen MLB decisions combined, and will surely go through taking a few lumps in a division that is so deep. They may resemble a Rays like staff, but I am not sure these guys have the same kind of stuff and will probably not be as consistent. I look for them to struggle when Holladay or Litsch is not on the mound.
As far as the bullpen? It is again anchored by closer, B.J. Ryan. There are a few question marks there if he can come back as healthy as in years past after struggling with injuries last year. The rest of the bullpen as quality arms, but nothing too flashy. They include Scott Downs, Jeremy Accardo, Jesse Carlson, Brandon League, and others. I think they will be able to throw some quality innings, but I am not so sure they can hold any potential close leads against Boston, Tampa, and New York.
So in order for the Jays to be successful, they are going to have to mash a ton of runs. Toronto usually is capable of scoring a bunch of runs and this year shouldn't be much different. Their 2009 projected starting lineup looks a little something like this:
Marco Scutaro ss
Aaron Hill 2b
Alex Rios rf
Vernon Wells cf
Lyle Overbay 1b
Scott Rolen 3b
Rod Barajas c
Adam Lind dh
Travis Snyder lf
The top isn't a strong or as fast as some of the others in the division, but the power spots of Rios, Wells, and Overbay should match up nicely with anyone. They will be able to not only hit the ball over the fence but they should knock in a ton of runs.
There is no question the Jays will put up runs, and they should get out to some early leads. But with marginal starting pitching and an average bullpen that could become quite weak if Ryan isn't healthy, it could be a long year north of the boarder. Do I not only see Toronto failing to compete with Tampa and New York for the second or third spot, I believe they will be having to fight off Baltimore for fourth/last in the AL East. In fact, they may be so far out of it by July they will look to trade any potential attractive pieces such as Rios, Wells, or Ryan. The bigger question: How long will Halladay have to suffer in Toronto?
Prediction: 69-93